Author Brendon Ogmundson Chief Economist BCREA
Vancouver, BC – January 25, 2024. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2024 First Quarter Housing Forecast today.
Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in BC are forecast to increase 7.8 per cent to 78,775 units this year. In 2025, MLS® residential sales are forecasted to strengthen further, rising to 86,475 units. "In 2023, the housing market faced headwinds due to elevated mortgage rates, but the recent decline in fixed mortgage rates and potential Bank of Canada rate cuts present an optimistic outlook for 2024," said Brendon Ogmundson, Chief Economist. "As we navigate through 2024, we expect a delicate balance between rising sales and normalizing inventories, which should lead to a relatively quiet year for prices."
With substantial progress in bringing inflation back to 2 per cent and a softening in economic growth and employment, there is less necessity for monetary policy to remain stringent. Therefore, we anticipate the Bank of Canada will begin to lower its policy rate this year, leading to higher provincial home sales. The ultimate impact on prices hinges entirely on how inventory evolves this year. While risks to the economy remain, our view is that new listings normalize following a lull in activity last year. That normalization of new listing activity should result in a more balanced market this year with relatively stable pricing.